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Evaluation of the performance of TBATS and SARIMA methods in forecasting air temperature in Indonesia

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This evaluation finds SARIMA forecasts air temperature slightly better than TBATS, indicating effective methods for climate prediction in Indonesia.

SARIMA performs slightly better than TBATS with an RMSE of 21.2958%, while TBATS shows 21.3843%.
Both forecasting methods operate effectively, maintaining RMSE within an acceptable range for air temperature prediction.
Cross-validation with a rolling basis was employed to assess forecasting accuracy during the study period.
The results aim to enhance understanding of air temperature forecasting and inspire hybrid model research.

Aprilia et al. (2025) studied this question.

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This evaluation finds SARIMA forecasts air temperature slightly better than TBATS, indicating effective methods for climate prediction in Indonesia.