Housing market in the Republic of Tatarstan: price analysis and forecasts

For the period 2010-2024, prices per 1 sq. m. Housing prices in Tatarstan tended to increase. The ratio of per capita monthly incomes of the population and prices per 1 sq. m. Housing surveys have shown that housing affordability for the population in 2024 has decreased compared to 2010. Holt’s double exponential smoothing models, which take into account a linear trend, provide the best results for predicting prices in the primary market. Winters triple exponential smoothing models with linear trend and additive seasonality are suitable for forecasting prices in the secondary market. According to the forecasts obtained, while maintaining the trends of 2010-2024 in the primary housing market, average prices will increase by 1 sq.m. The number of standard apartments (of average quality) in relation to the end of 2024 may amount to 11.9% at the end of 2025, 22.6% at the end of 2026, 33.3% at the end of 2027; apartments of improved quality: 14.0% at the end of 2025, 27.7% at the end of 2026, 41.3% at the end of 2027. In the secondary market, an increase in average prices per 1 sq.m. The number of standard apartments is projected at 10.6% at the end of 2025, 22.2% at the end of 2026, 33.8% at the end of 2027.; apartments of improved quality: 6.2% at the end of 2025, 12.2% at the end of 2026, 18.1% at the end of 2027 compared to the end of 2024.