Lung Cancer with Isolated Pleural Dissemination as a Potential ctDNA Non-Shedding Tumor Type

Objectives: Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) has emerged as a reliable prognostic biomarker in both early- and late-stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. However, its role in NSCLC with pleural dissemination (M1a), a subset of disease with indolent biology, remains to be elucidated. Methods: We collected 41 M1a patients with serial ctDNA and CEA monitoring. Progression-free survival (PFS) was assessed between patients with different levels of ctDNA and CEA. An independent cohort of 61 M1a patients was included for validation. Results: At the diagnostic landmark, the detection rates for ctDNA and CEA were 22% and 55%, respectively. Among patients who experienced disease progression with pleural metastases, only ten had detectable ctDNA in longitudinal timepoints, resulting in a sensitivity of 50%. Moreover, there was no significant difference in PFS between patients with longitudinally detectable and undetectable ctDNA (HR: 0.86, 95% CI 0.33–2.23, p = 0.76). In contrast, patients with a decreasing CEA trend within 3 months after diagnosis were associated with an improved PFS (HR: 0.22; 95% CI, 0.03–1.48, p = 0.004). This finding is confirmed in an independent M1a patient cohort. Conclusions: Together, our findings suggest that M1a NSCLC with isolated pleural dissemination may represent a “non-shedding” tumor type, where ctDNA shows limited diagnostic and prognostic value. Monitoring early changes in CEA could be a more cost-effective predictor of disease progression.