Should College be “Free”? Evidence on Free College, Early Commitment, and Merit Aid from an Eight-Year Randomized Trial

We provide evidence on the effects of college financial aid from an eight-year randomized trial offering ninth graders a $12,000 merit-based grant. The program was designed to be free of tuition/fees at community colleges and substantially lower the cost of four-year colleges. During high school, eligibility for the grant increased students’ expectations of college attendance and low-cost college preparation effort, but not higher-cost effort. The program may have increased graduation from two-year colleges but did not affect overall college entry, graduation, employment, incarceration, or teen pregnancy. Additional analysis helps explain these modest effects and variation in results across prior studies. (JEL I22, I23, I26, I28, J24)