Assessment of onshore wind energy potential in Azerbaijan using Weibull distribution analysis

This study provides an in-depth assessment of Azerbaijan's wind energy potential using ERA5 reanalysis data from 1940 to 2023. Using statistical analysis based on the Weibull distribution, the study examines wind characteristics at 24 strategically selected locations across the country. A Python-based automated process facilitated the analysis of over 70 million hourly wind speed observations, yielding detailed estimates of wind power density and providing critical data for renewable energy development planning. Azerbaijan has significant renewable energy resources, with an estimated onshore wind capacity of 3000 MW out of a total renewable capacity of 26940 MW. The analysis identified coastal areas such as Baku, Sumgait and Gobustan as having the highest wind energy potential, with Baku having an average wind speed of 8.01 m/s at 100 meters above ground level (AGL) and a wind power density of 628.5 W/m². Inland regions such as Khizi and Naftalan show moderate potential, suitable for smaller wind energy projects. The methodology integrates long-term meteorological data with advanced statistical techniques to ensure the reliability of the results. Weibull distribution parameters were calculated to characterize wind regimes and effectively predict energy yields. However, the study recognizes the limitations of ERA5's spatial resolution in capturing the complexity of mountainous terrain and highlights the need for localized, high-resolution measurements to improve accuracy. This research outlines priority areas for wind energy development and provides a robust framework for policy makers and stakeholders. By advancing the understanding of wind energy potential, the findings support Azerbaijan's strategic goals of enhancing energy security, achieving sustainable development, and addressing climate change challenges through renewable energy integration.