Balancing Deterrence and Partnership: The EU’s Security Dilemma Between Russia and Turkey

This article analyzes the comparative impact of Russia and Turkey on European Union security, focusing on their distinct strategies, tools, and the EU’s varied responses. Russia represents a direct, revisionist threat through military aggression, hybrid warfare and energy dependency, leading the EU to adopt sanctions, bolster NATO’s eastern flank, and support Ukraine. Turkey’s approach combines assertive regional policies in the Black Sea and Eastern Mediterranean with selective cooperation on migration, trade, and defense, resulting in a fragmented EU stance that balances engagement and limited punitive measures. The research addresses the question: In what ways do hybrid threats and migration pressures from Russia and Turkey challenge EU cohesion and strategic autonomy? The study finds that both actors exploit disinformation, weaponize migration and contest maritime zones, compelling the EU to adapt via initiatives such as the Strategic Compass, PESCO, and REPowerEU. While these reforms enhance resilience, internal divisions and NATO reliance constrain the Union’s capacity for independent action, underscoring the need for coherent, long-term strategies that integrate deterrence with selective partnership.