What does this research mean for the field?

Turkey's ambivalent diplomacy between NATO and the Russia-China-Iran axis is a rational strategic-autonomy policy made possible by its geographic indispensability and the security shield provided by NATO's Article 5. Novelty: ClaimNovelty.INCREMENTAL. Consensus alignment: ConsensusAlignment.NEUTRAL.

What question did this study set out to answer?

To examine whether Turkey's diplomatic balancing between NATO and the Russia-China-Iran axis reflects an impartial peace-seeking foreign policy or a structural survival strategy rooted in strategic autonomy.

September 14, 2026Open Access

Turkey Between NATO and the Russia-China-Iran Axis: Anatomy of a Strategic Balancing Act

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Authors

PKPatrick Kabika Mwila Kabwe

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Implication

Geopolitical analysis reveals a rational strategic-autonomy policy in Turkey, highlighting how security guarantees and geographic leverage enable middle-power hedging.

Key Points

To examine whether Turkey's diplomatic balancing between NATO and the Russia-China-Iran axis reflects an impartial peace-seeking foreign policy or a structural survival strategy rooted in strategic autonomy.
Qualitative geopolitical analysis grounded in theoretical literature on middle-power hedging and strategic autonomy.
Empirical evaluation of defense, energy, and diplomatic alignments, including S-400 procurement, BRICS partnership bids, NATO Article 5 mechanisms, and the Montreux Convention.
NATO Article 5 collective deterrence functions as a protective shield that prevents direct attacks against Turkey, enabling greater diplomatic maneuvering space than non-allied middle powers possess.
Control over the Bosphorus and Dardanelles, NATO's southern flank positioning, and crucial energy transit corridors render Turkey strategically indispensable to both Western allies and Eastern powers.

Cite This Study

Patrick Kabika Mwila Kabwe (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6aa7b3ee0926e14a848b338e https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22721393

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Implication

Geopolitical analysis reveals a rational strategic-autonomy policy in Turkey, highlighting how security guarantees and geographic leverage enable middle-power hedging.

Turkey Between NATO and the Russia-China-Iran Axis: Anatomy of a Strategic Balancing Act

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

Turkey Between NATO and the Russia-China-Iran Axis: Anatomy of a Strategic Balancing Act

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

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