Using the LARS-WG Model to Predict the Maximum Temperature in Zakho City, Iraq

Climate change has significantly impacted residential environments in many parts of the world. Scientists are nowadays more motivated to study and predict future changes in essential climatic elements, including temperature, to provide helpful reference results for future planning and managing. This study aims to estimate the impact of global warming on Zakho City, northern Iraq. The daily maximum temperatures are downscaled using the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) model based on the SSP585 scenario. Five General Circulation Models (GCMs) outputs are used for the selected period (2021-2040). The results exhibit that the statistical analysis validated the LARS-WG model’s ability and dependability to downscale maximum temperature time series, and the average of five GCMs showed a rise in the monthly data of the studied period compared to the reference period (1985-2015). The predicted increase for the maximum temperature ranges between 1.4 to 2.7 ºC. The obtained results of the current research have the chance to improve comprehension of how the urban environment is affected by climate change and motivate stakeholders and planners to identify the most effective means of reducing these effects