Forecasting and simulation model for Transit-Oriented Transport Organization at high-speed rail and urban rail stations in Ho Chi Minh City

This study develops and applies a forecasting–simulation model for transport organization based on the Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) approach in the vicinity of railway stations. Grounded in an assessment of the current state of transport organization, the research integrates a macro-level travel demand forecasting model with a micro-level simulation to evaluate the effectiveness of TOD-based transport planning scenarios at urban rail and high-speed rail stations, with Thao Dien Station selected as a representative case study. The study formulates three simulation scenarios: (i) the 2025 baseline (current conditions), (ii) the year 2030 without TOD implementation, and (iii) the year 2030 with TOD-based transport planning. The application of TOD demonstrates improvements in the overall transport system by redistributing traffic flows, increasing public transit usage, and reducing trips made by private vehicles.