Climate change will increase the habitat suitability of Bidens frondosa L. in Türkiye: Implications for future invasion and management

Bidens frondosa (Devil’s beggarticks) is an invasive plant species originating from North America, which poses significant ecological and economic risks across its introduced range. The species is present in Türkiye; however, its future spread has not been modeled yet. Therefore, this study predicted habitat suitability for B. frondosa in Türkiye under current and future climate scenarios utilizing the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model. The mode was trained and tested using 7,646 occurrence records and 8 environmental variables. The model predicted the habitat suitability with high accuracy (AUC = >0.9). The model predicted that moisture availability in the driest quarter will be the critical determinant of habitat suitability under current and future climatic conditions. Model projected that B. frondosa could colonize 56% of Türkiye’s terrestrial area under current climate with significant suitable habitats located in the northern and western areas of the country. Future climate predictions indicate that the species will extend its distribution range, especially under the high-emission SSP5-8.5 scenario, with a predicted movement towards the eastern and southern regions of the country. The findings highlight potential ecological consequences of B. frondosa invasion, especially its competition with native plant species and its risk to agriculture. Proactive management techniques, including climate-smart invasive species eradication, are crucial to minimize projected expansion and preserve Türkiye’s biodiversity and agricultural economy.