Forecasting and Assessing Contamination of the Caspian Sea in the Area of the Chechen Island during Gas Condensate Spills Based on the Lagrange Model

The relevance of the article is determined by the need for a comprehensive study and addressing the challenge of preventing contamination of the Caspian Sea during gas condensate spills. The study aims to conduct a computer experiment in order to build and analyze trajectories of gas condensate spill spread in the case of an accident in a drilling rig within the zone of the Makhachkala Marine Port of the Caspian Sea in the area of the Chechen island. The Aviation gasoline 100 was used as a basic hydrocarbon model at a wind speed of 5 m/s. Modelling of scenarios of spill spread for a wide range of wind directions has been conducted, and the relevant gas condensate mass washed ashore have been determined. In the conditions considered, the contamination reaches the coast only in the case of eastern winds. Emergency maps have been elaborated in the PISCES system based on the Lagrange model. The statistical analysis of contamination parameters (the amount of oil products ashore) has been conducted. The results of modelling constitute important information for the assessment of potential consequences and the development of strategies of prevention and response to similar emergencies, as for the scientific and methodological support to reduce oil contamination level risks caused by drilling ships and rigs, as well as gas condensate transporting tankers.