Proposed NT-ProBNP Threshold for Predicting 2-Year Heart Failure Mortality and Implications for Long-Term Community Follow-Up

Background/Objectives: Pre-discharge NT-proBNP levels may serve as a helpful tool in the algorithm of assessing the long-term risk of mortality after a hospitalization for symptomatic heart failure (HF). The goals were: (a) to identify a cut-off for NT-proBNP concentrations for predicting the two-year all-cause mortality in our sample of patients, and (b) to identify risk factors associated with NT-proBNP concentrations being higher than this cut-off. Methods: The present prospective study included 96 patients diagnosed with symptomatic HF with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) < 50%, who were followed for up to 2 years post-hospital discharge. Results: Levels of pre-discharge NT-proBNP were found to be predictive of all-cause mortality. We determined that an NT-proBNP cut-off score of 8700 pg/mL may predict with 75.8% sensitivity and 70.1% specificity a 4.6-fold increase in mortality risk over a period of two years in our study sample, 95% CI (2–10.8), p = 0.001. Predictors of NT-proBNP concentrations > 8700 pg/mL included: older age, OR 4.73, 95% CI (1.74–12.85), p = 0.002; lack of angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor (ACE-I) treatment, OR 0.3, 95% CI (0.12–0.74), p = 0.009; low systolic blood pressure (SBP) at admission, OR 3.4, 95% CI (1.36–8.49), p = 0.009; and low serum hemoglobin at admission, OR 3.2, 95% CI (1.38–7.46), p = 0.007. Conclusions: NT-proBNP may serve as a helpful tool for predicting mortality after an episode of HF decompensation, thus allowing the implementation of appropriate long-term monitoring and treatment. Particular attention should be paid to older patients without ACE-I medication, who had SBP < 120 mmHg at admission, and/or low levels of serum hemoglobin—as these patients are more likely to have pre-discharge NT-proBNP concentrations higher than the cut-off. These findings have implications for the long-term community follow-up of patients with HF.