Improving the Method for Calculating Potential Dangerous in the Conflict Zone for Common Traffic Flow Through Clarification of Reduction Coefficients for the Severity of Road Accidents

The forecast error of the existing method for predicting accident rates in a transport-transport conflict in a passing traffic flow is about 40% (for the method under consideration). A deeper analysis of this method showed that it has broad theoretical (based on the proposal of an improved methodology for determining the inert and active zones of the dilemma) and analytical possibilities for its improvement, which are associated with clarifying general changes in the basic method aimed at clarifying the location and duration of the conflict zone and their formalization, the values of service deceleration when approaching a signalized intersection (SIC), as well as taking into account the weighted average value of deceleration in the conflict zone. In addition, a significant role in further reducing the forecast error is played by clarifying the values of the coefficients for reducing accident severity and then taking them into account when constructing the dependence of the accident rate on the potential danger.