Identifying Key Sectors in Tunisia: Analysis of Intersectoral Linkages from Social Accounting Matrix.

Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs) provide detailed empirical representations of an economy's circular flow between production, income distribution and expenditure. The authors apply SAM techniques to analyze sectoral linkages and multiplier effects in the Tunisian economy. Using the Leontief inverse matrix derived from input-output data, the authors attempted to model the impacts of demand shocks under three scenarios: with traditional exogenous variables, endogenizing investment, and endogenizing government spending. Endogenous government spending strengthens input linkages as upstream suppliers like services and agro-foods expand to meet demand. However, larger deficits can also displace private activity through substitution, requiring consideration of sectoral crowding out risks. Endogenous investment similarly stimulates production capacity, deepening manufacturing and construction backward linkages. Analyzing changes in linkage indicators over the scenarios highlights Tunisia's opportunities and challenges in structural transformation. As new high-linkage sectors emerge, coordinated policy interventions could leverage spillovers, for example in agro-processing value chains. But balanced public investment is needed to facilitate moderate diversification while monitoring sectoral crowding out. Overall, the SAM analysis emphasizes Tunisia faces a balancing challenge between agriculture, services and advanced sectors.