Predictability in the US-China Trade War: A Multidimensional Complex Game Theory Perspective

Purpose: This research is on the predictability of the prolonged US-China trade war that started in 2018, studying negotiation and settlement in this protracted trade war. Research design, data, and methodology: The paper uses the prisoner’s dilemma and the game called chicken, which are representative non-cooperative games in game theory, along with two-level game theory. Results: Both the U.S. and China are expected to have a negative economic impact on the world, but China is expected to suffer greater damage. The essence of the trade war is China’s all-out challenge to the United States, which prides itself on being a worldwide hegemony. Conclusions: When looking at the US-China trade war from a long-term perspective, China’s damage is expected to increase, and it is highly likely that the US will ultimately win.