Influence of the Russia–Ukraine war on security discourse of Baltic presidents

This article examines how Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine influenced the national security discourse of the presidents of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia between 2020 and 2024. We integrate securitisation as the core framing lens and treat rally-around-the-flag as a conditional audience response; we investigate how Baltic presidents – despite differences in constitutional powers – framed Russia's aggression as a national security threat. A quantitative content analysis of presidential speeches and international media coverage (CNN) reveals distinct rhetorical patterns: Lithuanian President Nausėda consistently and explicitly linked Ukraine to national security, reflecting a proactive security stance; Estonian presidents emphasised broader security preparedness, with fluctuating references to Ukraine; while Latvian President Rinkēvičs, following a leadership transition, increased the prominence of Ukraine in his discourse, reflecting his diplomatic background. Although international media visibility, especially of Lithuania, partially aligned with national presidential rhetoric, external factors such as the 2023 NATO Summit also contributed. The findings underscore the symbolic and strategic role of presidents in shaping public and international perceptions of security, even in systems where their powers are largely ceremonial. Baltic presidents drew on "going public" type communication as channels to construct threat narratives, strengthen societal cohesion, and advocate for transatlantic security engagement amid the ongoing geopolitical crisis.