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October 19, 2025

Unrequited Love: Estimating the Electoral Effect of a Place-based Green Subsidy with a 2D Regression Discontinuity Design

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ZLZikai Li

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Overview

Analysis reveals a small negative impact of green subsidies on political preferences in vulnerable areas, suggesting complexities in voter behavior.

Key Points

  • The analysis found a small negative electoral effect from the green subsidy on voter support in 2024.
  • Point estimate indicates a shift of −0.0039 in Democratic support, based on the Energy Community Tax Credit Bonus.
  • This utilizes a two-dimensional regression discontinuity design to assess local economic incentives on voting behavior.
  • These results suggest that place-based climate policies may influence electoral outcomes, necessitating further exploration of voter responses.

Cite This Study

Zikai Li (2025) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/68f43ef4854d1061a58abdbahttps://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/s4nje_v2
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Also Consider

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  1. 1Asymmetric Incentives in Subsidies: Evidence from a Large-Scale Electricity Rebate Program2015 · 124 citations
  2. 2National disparities in residential energy tax credits in the United States2024 · 2 citations
  3. 3From Votes to Megawatts: Policy Outcomes of Local Elections2026
  4. 4Place-Based Policies, Local Responses, and Electoral Behavior2024 · 4 citations
  5. 5Empirical Analysis of Renewable Energy Subsidy Policies on Regional Employment and Growth2026