Estimates of Possible Changes of Open Water Period in Russian Exclusive Economic Zone in the Arctic in the 21 Century

The rapid reduction of the Arctic Sea ice area in recent decades and the increase in the duration of ice-free navigation along the Northern Sea Route is one of the positive consequences of the global warming for Russia. At the same time, further retreat of the sea ice may lead to a prolonged seasonal open water period outside the Russian exclusive economic zone (REEZ) with significant economic and geopolitical risks. The paper provides estimates of possible changes of the sea ice concentration in the Arctic and the duration of open water period, including outside of REEZ in the 21st century, based on the CMIP6 climate model ensemble for moderate and aggressive scenarios of anthropogenic forcing. In particular, it is shown that already by the middle of the 21st century, the duration of ice-free navigation outside REEZ may exceed two and a half months.