Key result
Low eGDR linked to over threefold higher 90-day death or readmission in acute heart failure.
Why the study?
The short-term predictive value of estimated glucose disposal rate (eGDR) for rehospitalization or death in elderly patients with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) was unclear.
Does a low estimated glucose disposal rate (eGDR) predict rehospitalization or death in elderly patients with acute decompensated heart failure?
Cohort (n=117)
No
Does a low estimated glucose disposal rate (eGDR) predict rehospitalization or death in elderly patients with acute decompensated heart failure?
Absolute Event Rate: 52% vs 16.5%
p-value: p=<0.001
A low estimated glucose disposal rate (eGDR < 5.31) is an independent predictor of 90-day rehospitalization and death in elderly patients with acute decompensated heart failure.
May support eGDR-based risk stratification in elderly ADHF; hypothesis-generating for targeted interventions.
OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to explore the short-term predictive value of the estimated glucose disposal rate (eGDR) for rehospitalization or death in elderly patients with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF). METHODS: 117 elderly patients with ADHF admitted to our hospital from January 2020 to January 2022 were recruited and divided into control (80 cases) and event (37 cases) groups based on whether they were rehospitalized or died within 90 days following discharge. Basic information, clinical characteristics, and laboratory test results of them were collected, and the eGDR was calculated. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified the independent factors associated with the short-term prognosis, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves assessed the predictive value of eGDR. RESULTS: The event group had significantly higher rates of comorbid diabetes (DM), hypertension, Class IV heart failure, and cardiogenic shock, as well as a larger waist circumference, higher peak troponin I during hospitalization, greater glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) and fasting blood glucose (FBG), and lower eGDR values compared to the control group (P < 0.05). Multivariate logistic regression showed that comorbid hypertension, DM, Class IV cardiac function, cardiogenic shock, FBG, HbA1c, and eGDR were independent factors associated with poor short-term prognosis in elderly patients with ADHF (P < 0.05). ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the curve for eGDR in predicting poor short-term prognosis was 0.84 (P = 0.04), with an optimal cutoff value of 5.31, a sensitivity of 83.8%, and a specificity of 70.1%. Patients with eGDR < 5.31 had a significantly higher incidence of rehospitalization or death within 90 days compared to those with higher eGDR (52.0% vs. 16.5%, P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: eGDR is an independent predictor of poor short-term prognosis in elderly patients with ADHF: a low eGDR was associated with a higher risk of rehospitalization and death within 90 days.
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Zhai et al. (2025) conducted a cohort in Acute decompensated heart failure (n=117). Low estimated glucose disposal rate (eGDR < 5.31) vs. High estimated glucose disposal rate (eGDR ≥ 5.31) was evaluated on Emergency rehospitalization or death within 90 days (p=<0.001). A low estimated glucose disposal rate (< 5.31) was associated with a significantly higher incidence of rehospitalization or death within 90 days compared to a higher eGDR (52.0% vs. 16.5%) in elderly patients with acute decompensated heart failure.
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