The crisis of international arms control regimes in the conditions of a shifting international system. The case of the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE)

The cognitive goal of the article is to analyze the CFE Treaty as a case of an international security regime in the field of arms control, with particular emphasis on the variability of the geopolitical context that determines the emergence, effectiveness and fall of this regime. It was recognized that achieving this goal requires general knowledge of international regimes and their role in shaping cooperative behavior and changing the rationality of states, then an analysis of the structure and specificity of the CFE provisions, an analysis of the geopolitical context of this regime, contributing to its fall, and finally an analysis of the effectiveness of international regimes, taking into account the specificity of the CFE. The analysis confirmed that changes at the level of the international system are a significant independent variable of international regimes. Until the beginning of the 21st century, the CFE regime expressed a new, cooperative approach to international security, being part of this process. The change in the “political climate” in NATO-Russia relations since the beginning of the 21st century eventually led to the cessation of this regime. Geopolitical rivalry changed the definition of national security interests of many states, also changing the rationality of thinking about the usefulness of the CFE regime. In the changing geopolitical context, it began to be perceived – first by Russia, and then by NATO states, especially those on the eastern flank, as a limitation of security due to – in the case of Russia, the need to develop offensive potential for intimidation, and in the case of NATO states, the limitation of developing potential for deterrence. In the conditions of such a change in priorities, the CFE regime had to fall.