Predicting the global distribution of Coffee Bee Hawk Moth (Cephanodes hylas L.) under climate change using MaxEnt

Cephonodes hylas, or the Coffee Bee Hawk Moth, is a significant agricultural pest that threatens crops like coffee and garden plants in Asia, Oceania, and parts of Africa. Its larvae feed on Coffea species and Gardenia, making its distribution assessment crucial for future agricultural impact and management. This study employed MaxEnt to evaluate the potential distribution of C. hylas under three socioeconomic scenarios between 2041 and 2080. The model demonstrated high accuracy, with AUC values of 0.925 and TSS values of around 0.815. Key environmental factors affecting its distribution include precipitation, isothermality, temperature, and diurnal range. Currently, C. hylas is widespread across continents except Antarctica, with notable populations in Africa and Asia. Under a low-emission scenario, highly suitable habitats are projected to increase by 6.51% by 2080, while a high-emission scenario predicts a 55.46% reduction in suitable areas. This study underscores the need for monitoring and management to address the pest’s impact amid climate change.