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Models GDP trajectories under military-to-medical reallocation and default paths to civilizational collapse.
Website: https://gdp-trajectories.warondisease.org Your destructive economy (military spending plus cybercrime) is already 11.5% of GDP and growing faster than your productive economy. At current rates, it reaches the Soviet collapse threshold in 8 years and exceeds productive output in 15. This paper models two GDP trajectories: the optimized path under military-to-medical reallocation, and the default path to civilizational collapse.
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Mike P. Sinn (2026) studied this question.
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