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This research aims to analyze lung cancer incidence and mortality trends in Europe, particularly focusing on Serbia, and project future rates.

March 21, 2026ESMO OpenOpen Access

401eP Patterns of lung cancer incidence and mortality in Europe: Age- and sex-stratified epidemiology and long-term projections

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Long-term projections reveal declining lung cancer mortality and incidence in Europe, suggesting effective prevention strategies.

This research aims to analyze lung cancer incidence and mortality trends in Europe, particularly focusing on Serbia, and project future rates.
Utilized Joinpoint Regression Program for trend analysis.
Applied ARIMA modeling to forecast lung cancer patterns until 2035.
Stratified data by age and sex for more detailed insights.
Lung cancer mortality increased from 36.0 in 1980 to 40.5 in 2023 in Serbia.
Age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (ASR-DALYs) decreased from 1103.5 in 1990 to 1010.7 in 2023.
Projected declines in ASDR and ASR-DALYs by 2035 indicate potential improvements in public health strategies.

Libonati et al. (2026) studied this question.

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