Toward Greenhouse Gas Neutrality: China’s post-2030 Transition Pathway and Policy

Global climate targets require massive economic transformations to achieve greenhouse gas (GHG) neutrality by mid-century. China, as the world's largest emitter, has pledged to peak carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. Current domestic policies primarily target the 2030 CO 2 peaking objective, whereas the specific scope and actionable measures for the 2060 neutrality goal remain unclear. However, the critical differences in socioeconomic and technological pathways between realizing CO 2 neutrality versus comprehensive GHG neutrality are not yet well understood. Here we show that achieving GHG neutrality by 2060 demands unprecedented, cross-sectoral mitigation efforts far exceeding those required for CO 2 neutrality. Using a multi-model integrated framework, we demonstrate that GHG neutrality requires a 100% elimination of energy-related CO 2 emissions, compared with a 92% reduction under CO 2 neutrality. Furthermore, non-CO 2 emissions must be slashed by 60% instead of 50%, and the technical demand for carbon capture must expand from 1.3 to 1.9 gigatonnes of CO 2 . Reaching this target requires a 15% reduction in total GHG emissions by 2035 and an 85% reduction by 2050 relative to 2030 levels. The findings indicate the necessity of a 2035-focused medium-term climate strategy to connect current policies with long-term objectives. Implementation of these comprehensive roadmaps is essential for directing the broader economy toward sustainable global climate governance. • China's climate policies must shift to comprehensive greenhouse gas neutrality. • Achieving GHG neutrality by 2060 requires far greater efforts than CO 2 neutrality. • Energy-related CO 2 emissions must reach absolute net zero by 2060. • Non-CO 2 emissions must drop by 60%, demanding advanced mitigation. • Carbon capture capacity must expand to 1.9 gigatonnes to offset emissions.