Changes in range boundaries of the gypsy moth and the nun moth (Lymantria dispar, L. monacha, Lymantriidae, Lepidoptera) due to the global warming: a model approach

Modeling of the gypsy moth and nun moth ranges using climatic predictors and the updated climate database suggested potential consequences of the observed climate changes for these economically important insects. The climate changes during 1981–2010, as compared to those during 1951–1980, have predetermined a considerable northward and eastward expansion of these moths. New areas climatically suitable for the gypsy moth but isolated from its main range have appeared in Eastern Siberia, in the Aldan Upland region and to the north of Lake Baikal up to 60°N. The greatest expansion of the nun moth range was observed in the Lena Plateau and northern Aldan Upland regions. Some insignificant reduction of its range was found only in Altai. Merging of the Euro-Siberian and Far Eastern parts of the nun moth range is also possible.