This paper presents a quantitative analysis of the sensitivity of CO₂ emissions in the heating sector of residential buildings in Bosnia and Herzegovina, developed using the LEAP (Low Emissions Analysis Platform) model. The research is focused on two subsystems: individual houses that have not been renovated and individual houses that have undergone energy renovation. The analysis includes changes in useful energy per unit area (QHNDᵢ) and efficiency of heating technologies (ηᵢ), and their impact on total greenhouse gas emissions in the period 2020-2050. year. The methodological approach includes the calculation of partial elasticities of emissions and the decomposition of the total reduction of emissions into three components: reduction of useful energy, increase in the efficiency of technologies and change in the structure of the housing stock. The results show that total emissions can be reduced by 76% by 2050, with the increase in energy efficiency technologies being the single most significant factor (≈47% of the total reduction). An additional contribution comes from the reduction of useful energy (28%) and the increase in the share of renovated buildings (25%). The analysis of elasticity indicates the transition of the system from the phase of technical sensitivity - when emissions are dominantly dependent on energy consumption in unrenovated houses - to the phase of structural sensitivity, in which the growth of the share of renovated and efficient buildings becomes decisive. Although the methodological framework of the research is based on the analysis of individual residential buildings (renovated and unrenovated houses), it is important to emphasize that the principles and results of this modeling can be fully applied to other types of residential buildings in Bosnia and Herzegovina. According to the Typology of residential buildings in Bosnia and Herzegovina 1, individual houses make up the largest part of the total housing stock, but the energy characteristics of collective housing (multi-apartment buildings) in terms of useful energy, heating system efficiency and renovation trends have similar dynamics. Therefore, the conclusions of the sensitivity analysis - including the impact of useful energy (Qhndᵢ), efficiency of technologies (ηᵢ) and changes in the structure of the fund - can be considered representative for the entire housing sector, and not only for individual houses. This approach enables the use of the LEAP model to assess the long-term effects of renovation policies in the entire housing sector, regardless of the architectural type of the building. These results confirm that the combination of technical measures (increasing efficiency) and structural changes (deep renovation) represents the optimal path for long-term emission reduction and the achievement of a climate-neutral heating sector by the middle of the century.
Smajlović et al. (Thu,) studied this question.