Modeling Tourist Affinities and Mediated Loyalty in Protected Natural Areas Using Fuzzy Logic

This study analyzes tourist loyalty in the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve by integrating affinity-based segmentation and the Forgotten Effects Theory within a fuzzy logic framework. The objective was to identify how visitor affinities condition the indirect construction of loyalty in contexts of high environmental complexity. Data were collected through a structured questionnaire administered to 316 tourists using a non-probabilistic sampling approach. Using the Pichat Algorithm and the Forgotten Effects Theory, the research captured gradual membership patterns and mediated relationships that conventional models often overlook. Results indicate that, while age, particularly Generation X, acts as a connecting axis, postgraduate education levels generate a polarization of visitor perceptions across segments. Significant forgotten effects (up to 0.30) were identified, suggesting that variables such as satisfaction, entertainment, and relaxation act as mediating mechanisms between learning, perceived value, and the intention to revisit. This study suggests that loyalty is not constructed directly but is indirectly shaped by affinity-based visitor structures. It recommends that management strategies evolve toward environmental edutainment models and that marketing efforts be diversified according to differentiated visitor profiles. These findings demonstrate the utility of fuzzy logic for the strategic management of high-value ecological destinations.