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July 14, 2025Journal of the American Heart AssociationOpen Access

New risk model predicts incident hypertension in young adults with better specificity than USPSTF recommendations.

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Why the study?

Identifying young adults at high risk of hypertension can improve blood pressure screening recommendations.

Does a new sex-specific risk prediction model improve the identification of young adults at high risk for incident hypertension compared to the 2021 US Preventive Services Task Force recommendations?

Population

355 524 young adults aged 18 to 39 years from Kaiser Permanente Southern California plus 3 external cohorts

Comparison

Incident hypertension risk prediction models vs 2021 US Preventive Services Task Force recommendations

Design

Risk prediction model development and external validation study

Follow-up

Median of 5.4 years

Key result

A new risk prediction model for incident hypertension in young adults demonstrated good discrimination (C-statistic 0.76-0.82) and improved specificity compared to USPSTF screening recommendations.

Authors

JAJaejin AnHFHeidi FischerLNLiang Ni

Discussion

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Overview

A newly developed sex-specific risk prediction model for incident hypertension in young adults offers improved specificity over current USPSTF screening recommendations, potentially reducing unnecessary screening while efficiently identifying high-risk individuals.

Study Design

Type

Cohort (n=355,524)

Multicenter

Yes

Structured PICO

Does a new sex-specific risk prediction model improve the identification of young adults at high risk for incident hypertension compared to the 2021 US Preventive Services Task Force recommendations?

P
Population
355,524 young adults aged 18 to 39 years from Kaiser Permanente Southern California (mean age 29 years, mean BP 115/70 mm Hg) for derivation and internal validation, and 3 cohort studies (CARDIA, FHS, HCHS/SOL) for external validation.
I
Intervention
Sex-specific incident hypertension risk prediction models developed using Cox elastic net and random survival forests
C
Comparator
2021 US Preventive Services Task Force blood pressure screening recommendations
O
Outcome
Incident hypertension

A newly developed sex-specific risk prediction model for incident hypertension in young adults offers improved specificity over current USPSTF screening recommendations, potentially reducing unnecessary screening while efficiently identifying high-risk individuals.

Cite This Study

An et al. (2025) conducted a cohort in Incident hypertension (n=355,524). Incident hypertension risk prediction model vs. 2021 US Preventive Services Task Force blood pressure screening recommendations was evaluated on Incident hypertension. A new risk prediction model for incident hypertension in young adults demonstrated good discrimination (C-statistic 0.76-0.82) and improved specificity compared to USPSTF screening recommendations.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a053fb44b24269796380848https://doi.org/10.1161/jaha.124.040769
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