Development of the Hypertension Index Model in General Adult Using the Korea National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey and the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study (Preprint)

BACKGROUND Hypertension, a risk factor for cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality, has been increasing. Along with emphasizing awareness and control of hypertension, predicting the incidence of hypertension is important. Several studies have previously reported prediction models of hypertension. However, among the previous models for predicting hypertension, few models reflect various risk factors for hypertension. OBJECTIVE We constructed a sex-specific prediction model using Korean datasets, which included socioeconomic status, medical history, lifestyle-related variables, anthropometric status, and laboratory indices. METHODS We utilized the data from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from 2011 to 2015 to derive a hypertension prediction model. Participants aged 40 years or older. We constructed a sex-specific hypertension classification model using logistic regression and features obtained by literature review and statistical analysis. RESULTS We constructed a sex-specific hypertension classification model including approximately 20 variables. We estimated its performance using the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey dataset from 2016 to 2018 (AUC = 0.807 in men, AUC = 0.854 in women). The performance of our hypertension model was considered significant based on the cumulative incidence calculated from a longitudinal dataset, the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study dataset. CONCLUSIONS We developed this hypertension prediction model using features that could be collected in a clinical office without difficulty. Individualized results may alert a person at high risk to modify unhealthy lifestyles.