Offending and psychiatric disorders from age 20 to 63 among individuals with and without past experience of out-of-home care in Sweden: A prospective multi-trajectory cohort study

Individuals with childhood experience of out-of-home care (OHC) face elevated risks of criminal behavior and poor mental health compared with the majority population. Evidence on how trajectories of offending and psychiatric disorders covary among individuals with experience of OHC is needed. This study is based on a cohort of 14,608 individuals ( n = 1,319 with OHC experience) born in the Stockholm metropolitan area in 1953 (49% women) from birth to age 63 (2016). Group-based multi-trajectory modeling among those with at least one offense or psychiatric disorder (40.5% of the men, 16.6% of the women) identified four co-occurring trajectories for both sexes. Multinomial regression analyses showed that adolescent OHC placement, particularly in institutions and for behavioral reasons, was linked to higher odds of early-adulthood-limited or decreasing offending and psychiatric trajectories. Most individuals recover from offending and psychiatric disorders by retirement, but placed individuals in particular remain at high risk for offending, alongside psychiatric disorders, throughout early adulthood. Early assessment and tailored attention to needs and risk levels is important when designing long-term care services to mitigate this. Research on underlying mechanisms, and on collaboration between the welfare, justice, and psychiatric care systems, can help to design effective intervention strategies and policies.