Envelope-Driven Comfort Risk in Residential Demand Response

• Introduces a probabilistic, stock-level framework that links realistic DR event weather conditions and residential envelope characteristics to quantify thermal comfort risk using both temperature exceedance (TOCR) thresholds and rates of indoor temperature change (RITC). • Evaluates thousands of simulated DR events across 37 US. locations using detailed building metadata and actual DR-triggering weather, producing region-level probabilities of comfort violations for existing US housing stock. • Distinguishes between thermal stress “Intensifying” and “Abating” OAT trajectories, revealing previously unrecognized, weather-pattern–specific DR comfort and reliability outcomes. • Demonstrates distinct roles of TOCR and RITC criteria in summer vs winter, showing how seasonal differences shape DR comfort outcomes. Residential demand response (DR) is a valuable resource for grid reliability, but remains challenging because the highly heterogeneous residential building stock leads to widely varying and hard-to-predict load and comfort responses during DR events. Although prior research has estimated the technical potential of DR-capable technologies for achieving energy demand savings, little is known about how they affect thermal comfort. In particular, it remains unclear how indoor thermal conditions due to DR depend on the thermal envelope characteristics of the housing stock. To address this gap, this study provides a systematic, location-specific assessment of indoor thermal performance during DR-events across the US housing stock using both typical DR weather data and detailed building metadata. We evaluate how envelope characteristics influence indoor temperatures during realistic simulated summer and winter DR events across 37 US locations, applying both temperature threshold and rate of temperature change criteria to estimate region-level probabilities of discomfort. Additionally, we show the impact of distinct weather patterns that intensify or abate thermal stress on comfort outcomes. Results show a near-universal overheating risk in summer DR events, where comfort outcomes are strongly influenced by rapid risk of comfort violations. In contrast, overall winter DR discomfort risk is lower, risk escalation is more gradual and shows greater sensitivity to event duration. These findings offer a data-driven quantification of comfort risk across diverse climates and building envelopes, demonstrating the need for region-specific DR scheduling and discomfort mitigation strategies tailored to local weather patterns and the performance of existing residential buildings.