Why the Internet Is Not Increasing Terrorism

AbstractPolicymakers and scholars fear that the Internet has increased the ability of transnational terrorists, like al Qaeda, to attack targets in the West, even in the face of increased policing and military efforts. Although access to the Internet has increased across the globe, there has been no corresponding increase in completed transnational terrorist attacks. This analysis examines the causal logics—which have led to the conventional wisdom—and demonstrates both theoretically and empirically that the Internet is not a force multiplier for transnational terrorist organizations. Far from being at a disadvantage on the Internet, state security organs actually gain at least as much utility from the Internet as terrorist groups do, meaning that at worst the Internet leaves the state in the same position vis-à-vis terrorist campaigns as it was prior to the Internet. ACKNOWLEDGMENTSThe author would like to thank Robert Pape, John Padgett, Dan Byman, Daryl Press, Ami Pedahzur, Chad Levinson, John Stevenson, Michael Rosol, Shawn Cochran, M. J. Reese, Risa Brooks, Stephanie Kelley, Katie Lindquist, The Chicago Project on Security and Terrorism Security Writers Workshop, BYU Political Science Forum, Chicago Program on International Security and Policy, and the anonymous reviews for comments, and untold other colleagues with whom the author has spoken about this project. All mistakes remain the author's own. NotesTerrorism on the Internet has attracted the attention of scholars like John Arquilla and Gabriel Weimann, analysts like Marc Sageman and Timothy Thomas, and journalists like Thomas Friedman. See Marc Sageman, "The Reality of Grass-Roots Terrorism, " Foreign Affairs 87, no. 4 (2008) ; Marc Sageman, Leaderless Jihad: Terror Networks in the Twenty-First Century (Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 2008) ; Marc Sageman, "The Next Generation of Terror, " Foreign Policy, no. 165 (2008) ; John Arquilla and David F. Ronfeldt, Networks and Netwars: The Future of Terror, Crime, and Militancy (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2001), http: //www. netLibrary. com/urlapi. asp? action=summary John Arquilla, "How to Win, " Foreign Policy, no. 160 (2007) ; John Arquilla, "The End of War as We Knew It? Insurgency, Counterinsurgency and Lessons from the Forgotten History of Early Terror Networks, " Third World Quarterly 28 (2007) ; Gabriel Weimann, Terror on the Internet: The New Arena, the New Challenges (Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace Press, 2006) ; Gabriel Weimann, "Using the Internet for Terrorist Recruitment and Mobilization, " in Nato Security through Science Series: Hypermedia Seduction for Terrorist Recruiting, ed. Boaz Ganor (Amsterdam; Washington, DC: IOS Press, published in cooperation with NATO Public Diplomacy Division, 2007) ; Gabriel Weimann, www. terror. net: How Modern Terrorism Uses the Internet (Washington, DC: US Institute of Peace, 2004), http: //purl. access. gpo. gov/GPO/LPS47607. pdf; Timothy L. Thomas, "Al Qaeda and the Internet: The Danger of 'Cyberplanning, '" Parameters: US Army War College 33, no. 1 (2003) ; Thomas L. Friedman, The Lexus and the Olive Tree, 1st ed. (New York: Anchor Books, 2000). Within the United States alone, the FBI, the CIA, the NSA, the DIA, and many others surveil the Internet. Two examples include SITE Intelligence Group (SITE) and Middle East Media Research Institute. Additionally, uncounted individuals and smaller groups participate in surveillance and have been responsible for several high-visibility arrests. One of the strictest examples of this is the United Kingdom's "Terrorism Act" of 2006. Under this act, two Germans visiting the United Kingdom were arrested for having in their possession digital copies of the al Qaeda publication Inspire. Special thanks to Keith Spence for bringing this to my attention. The Terrorism Act 2006, 30 March 2006; Press Association, "Germans Jailed for Bringing Al-Qaida Propaganda into the uk, " The Guardian, 6 February 2012. For important arguments, terrorism is not actually the danger some analysts and the general public seem to perceive it to be. See John E. Mueller, Overblown: How Politicians and the Terrorism Industry Inflate National Security Threats, and Why We Believe Them (New York: Free Press, 2006) ; Risa A. Brooks, "Muslim 'Homegrown': Terrorism in the United States: How Serious Is the Threat? , " International Security 36, no. 2 (2011) ; Mette Eilstrup-Sangiovanni and Calvert Jones, "Assessing the Dangers of Illicit Networks: Why Al-Qaida May Be Less Threatening Than Many Think, " International Security 33, no. 2 (2008). On history of the Internet's use in terrorism, see Keith Schneider, "Terror in Oklahoma: The Internet; Talk on Bombs Surges on Computer Network, " New York Times, 27 April 1995; Michael Saunders and Globe Staff, "Internet Has Been a Conduit for Extremist Ideas; Groups Spread Message, Warning; the Oklahoma City Bombing, " Boston Globe, 22 April 1995. See, for example, Steve Coll and Susan B. Glasser, "Terrorists Turn to the Web as Base of Operations, " The Washington Post, 7 August 2005. See, for example, Doug McAdam, Sidney G. Tarrow, and Charles Tilly, Dynamics of Contention, Cambridge Studies in Contentious Politics (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2001) ; Paul Staniland, "States, Insurgents, and Wartime Political Orders, " Perspectives on Politics 10, no. 2 (2012) ; Roger Dale Petersen, Resistance and Rebellion: Lessons from Eastern Europe, Studies in Rationality and Social Change (Cambridge; New York: Cambridge University Press, 2001) ; Stathis N. Kalyvas, The Logic of Violence in Civil War, Cambridge Studies in Comparative Politics Series (Cambridge; New York: Cambridge University Press, 2006) ; Doug McAdam, "Recruitment to High-Risk Activism: The Case of Freedom Summer, " American Journal of Sociology 92, no. 1 (1986). Frequently, studies focused on social movement will include violence as a factor, but insofar as violence is not the focus of this study, it is not the dependent variable of interest. These studies therefore do not examine specifically the changes in frequency or efficacy of violence itself but instead the selection of violence, as opposed to non-violence, and so on. For examples of studies of transnational activism that also examine the Internet, see Donatella Della Porta and Sidney G. Tarrow, eds. , Transnational Protest and Global Activism, People, Passions, and Power Series (Lanham, MD: Rowman Alberto Melucci, Challenging Codes: Collective Action in the Information Age, Cambridge Cultural Social Studies Series (Cambridge; New York: Cambridge University Press, 1996) ; Margaret E. Keck and Kathryn Sikkink, Activists Beyond Borders: Advocacy Networks in International Politics (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1998). Thomas, "Al Qaeda and the Internet. "Coll and Glasser, "Terrorists Turn to the Web"; Anne Stenersen, "The Internet: A Virtual Training Camp? , " Terrorism and Political Violence 20, no. 2 (2008) ; International Telecomunnications Union (ITU), World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators Database, (2010), http: //www. itu. int/en/ITU-D/Statistics/Pages/publications/wtid. aspx. Friedman, The Lexus and the Olive Tree; The Terrorism Act; Press Association, "Germans Jailed. "Sageman, Leaderless Jihad; Sageman, "The Next Generation of Terror"; Arquilla and Ronfeldt, Networks and Netwars. Whether or not potential targets fear attacks absent any rational basis for fear is a function of domestic sensibilities rather than of terrorist efficacy. For a discussion of the international effects of cyber attacks, see Thomas Rid, "Cyber War Will Not Take Place, " Journal of Strategic Studies 35, no. 1 (2012) ; Adam P. Liff, "The Proliferation of Cyberwarfare Capabilities and Interstate War, Redux: Liff Responds to Junio, " Journal of Strategic Studies 36, no. 1 (2013) ; Adam P. Liff, "Cyberwar: A New 'Absolute Weapon'? The Proliferation of Cyberwarfare Capabilities and Interstate War, " Journal of Strategic Studies 35, no. 3 (2012) ; Timothy J. Junio, "How Probable Is Cyber War? Bringing IR Theory Back in to the Cyber Conflict Debate, " Journal of Strategic Studies 36, no. 1 (2013). This definition of terrorism is quite widely accepted and derives from Alex Peter Schmid, A. J. Jongman, and Michael Stohl, Political Terrorism: A New Guide to Actors, Authors, Concepts, Data Bases, Theories, and Literature, 2nd ed. (New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Books, 2005). One might be concerned about the boundary between terrorism and other forms of internal violence—like civil war and insurgency—but such a distinction does not matter for the study of the Internet because those types of violence are almost always local. For other frameworks of terrorism, appropriate to other studies, see Walter Laqueur, The Age of Terrorism, 1st US ed. (Boston: Little, Brown, 1987) ; Bruce Hoffman, Inside Terrorism (New York: Columbia University Press, 2006), http: //site. ebrary. com/lib/uchicago/Doc? id=10183571; Robert A. Pape, Dying to Win: The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism, 1st ed. (New York: Random House, 2005) ; Andrew H. Kydd and Barbara F. Walter, "The Strategies of Terrorism, " International Security 31, no. 1 (2006). Tom Zeller, "On the Open Internet, a Web of Dark Alleys, " The New York Times, 20 December 2004. Coll and Glasser, "Terrorists Turn to the Web. "Joseph Lieberman and Susan Collins, Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Government Affairs, Violent Islamist Extremism, the Internet, and the Homegrown Terrorist Threat, 110th Cong. , 1st sess. (2008). For the seminal discussions of the relationship between militaries and states, see Samuel P. Huntington, The Soldier and the State: The Theory and Politics of Civil-Military Relations (New York, NY: Vintage Books, 1957) ; Morris Janowitz, The Professional Soldier: A Social and Political Portrait (Glencoe, IL: Free Press, 1960). For a discussion of materials available online as of 2008, see Stenersen, "The Internet: A Virtual Training Camp? "Al Jazeera, "Chilling Tips in Al-Qaeda Magazine, " Al Jazeera English (2010), http: //www. aljazeera. com/news/middleeast/2010/10/2010101254836321101. html. Hearing on Using the Web as a Weapon: The Internet as a Tool for Violent Radicalization and Homegrown Terrorism Before the Subcommittee on Intelligence, Information Sharing, and Terrorism Risk Assessment of the Committee on Homeland Security, 110th Cong. (6 November 2007) (testimony of Rita Katz, director, SITE Intelligence Group). According to SITE's webpage, "Rita Katz, the Director and co-founder of the SITE Intelligence Group, has studied, tracked, and analyzed international terrorists, the global jihadist network and terrorism financing for more than a decade. Since well before September 11, Ms. Katz has personally briefed government officials, including the NSC at the White House, investigators in the Department of Justice, Department of the Treasury, and the Department of Homeland Security on the financing and recruitment networks of the terrorist movement. " SITE Intelligence Group, http: //news. siteintelgroup. com/about-site. Abu Ghraib, which supposedly would not have been made public without the Internet, is an example of how the Internet may have changed state monopoly of discourse. Brigitte Lebens Nacos, Mass-Mediated Terrorism: The Central Role of the Media in Terrorism and Counterterrorism, 2nd ed. (Lanham, MD: Rowman Rhys Blakely, "'They Were Asking for It' - Sony Hit by Second Hacking in Primitive Attack, " The Times, 4 June 2011; Grace Chng, "Don't Make Life So Easy for Cybercriminals, " Straits Times, 11 May 2011. Paul McNamara, "Buzzblog: Palin E-Mail Snoop Sentenced to a Year in Custody, " http: //www. networkworld. com/community/blog/palin-e-mail-snoop-sentenced-year-prison; "Anonymous No More - Hackers under the Microscope, " New Zealand Herald, 12 September 2011; Paul Elias, "Federal Agencies Pursue Anonymous, " Washington Post, 12 September 2011. For example, "Jihad Jane" believed she was communicating with other potential terrorists, but in reality many of the people were actually informants. Eamon McNiff, "Internet Monitors Tracked 'Jihad Jane' Colleen Larose for Three Years, " http: //abcnews. go. com/TheLaw/Technology/internet-monitors-tracked-jihad-jane-years/story? id=10069484. Jimmy Wales, "Wikipedia, " http: //www. wikipedia. org/ (accessed 14 February 2014). Stenersen, "The Internet: A Virtual Training Camp? "James A. Evans, "Electronic Publication and the Narrowing of Science and Scholarship, " Science 321, no. 5887 (2008). John E. Mueller, ed. , Terrorism since 9/11: The American Cases (Columbus, OH: Mershon Center, 2013). Traci Sitzmann et al. , "The Comparative Effectiveness of Web-Based and Classroom Instruction: A Meta-Analysis, " Personnel Psychology 59, no. 3 (2006). . Michael Kenney, "Beyond the Internet: Mētis, Techne, and the Limitations of Online Artifacts for Islamist Terrorists, " Terrorism and Political Violence 22, no. 2 (2010). See, for example, Michelle Hunter, "Despite Warnings from Professional Wrestlers, Imitation Sometimes Has Deadly Consequences, " New Orleans Times Picayune, 18 June 2013, http: //www. nola. com/crime/index. ssf/2013/06/despitewarningsfromₚrofessi. html; Tom Meltzer, "Planking: A Brief History, " The Guardian, 16 May 2011, http: //www. guardian. co. uk/world/2011/may/16/planking-a-brief-history; Colleen Curry and Sydney Lupkin, "Daredevil Dies in Rope Swing Stunt Popular on Youtube, " ABC News, 25 March 2013, http: //abcnews. go. com/US/daredevil-dies-rope-swing-stunt-popular-youtube/story? id=18808432#. Uc8Y6m0mzPo. It is notable that the FBI felt that the dangers of emerging explosives warranted flying two hundred previously trained individuals from around the United States to Nevada for a familiarization course. It at least seems likely that if the FBI could have trained these experienced individuals remotely, at much lower cost, it would have. Federal Bureau of Investigation, "FBI Bomb Tech Training, " https: //www. fbi. gov/news/videos/fbi-bomb-tech-training. Some may question the symmetry of utility of the Internet by states and non-state actors and whether or not the Internet provides the same utility to states and non-state actors. Of course, individuals use the Internet, and therefore the utility of the Internet is in fact symmetrical. The structures and capabilities outside the Internet for states and non-state actors, however, are not symmetrical. Although not all governments have the same level of capacity, they all possess significant advantages. For the time being, a reasonable level of governance seems to be a prerequisite for abundant Internet access. Additionally, even in thoroughly backwards countries such as North Korea or Afghanistan, the government has more and better access to the Internet than its challengers do. Even if a case arises in which individuals or groups within a country have better access to the Internet than the government, the government will still have access to support from other governments, such as the United States, that are also similarly threatened by transnational terrorism. To understand the amazing strength of the United States to collect information, one need only look to the recent revelations surrounding the NSA. Glenn Greenwald, "NSA Collecting Phone Records of Millions of Verizon Customers Daily, " The Guardian, 15 July 2013. Sebastian Abbot, "Bin Laden Was Logged Off, but Not Al-Qaida, " http: //news. yahoo. com/s/ap/20110515/apₒnᵣeₐs/asbinₗadendigitalwarriors; Jason Burke, "Osama Bin Laden Tried to Establish 'Grand Coalition' of Militant Groups, " The Guardian, 30 May 2011. For example, Bruce Hoffman makes no distinction between Hamas's ability to attack Israel and al Qaeda's ability to attack the United States using suicide bombers. Bruce Hoffman, "The Logic of Suicide Terrorism, " Atlantic Monthly 291, no. 5 (2003). For example, the overwhelming majority of Americans, including most Muslims, prefer that Islamist terror groups do not carry out terror attacks within the United States. Richard Wike, "Little Support for Terrorism among Muslim Americans, " in Pew Global Attitudes Project, ed. Greg Smith (Washington, DC: Pew Research Center, Pew Forum on Religion for Hobbyists, Homeland Security Begins at Home, " Seattle Times, 20 June 2004. Home Office, "Public Told to Report Online Terrorism, " http: //www. publicservice. co. uk/newsₛtory. asp? id=16007. Kevin Strom et al. , "Building on Clues: Examining Successes and Failures in Detecting U. S. Terrorist Plots, 1999-2009" (Research Triangle Park, NC: Insitute for Homeland Security Solutions, 2010). All data on attacks derive from the databases listed below. No claim is made about the completeness of the list, but completed transnational attacks of any would be For for see University of Chicago Project on Security and Terrorism Suicide Database, National Terrorism Center, University of Global Terrorism Database, for West into the of 7 July 7 by The Guardian, September Michael to Homegrown Terrorism, " before House Subcommittee on Intelligence, Information Sharing, and Terrorism Risk Assessment May (Santa Monica, CA: Michael of Terrorist Radicalization in the United States since September 11, in and Series (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, The History of Al Qaeda, ed. University of Press, 2008) ; Sageman, Leaderless Jihad; Weimann, Terror on the this the attack is not in data these are not as of al Qaeda attacks this time and therefore do not in are for discussion because they are of as being al attacks since they the of attacks. 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