Cardiometabolic risk factors and hypertension progression in women according to the 2017 ACC/AHA guideline for the detection of high blood pressure: a multi-state modeling approach

Background: Despite extensive research on blood pressure (BP) progression, the impact of cardiometabolic risk factors on different stages of hypertension (HTN) remains poorly understood. This study aimed to investigate how these factors affect HTN progression. Methods: A community-based study of 1,740 women aged > 20 years was followed from 1999 to 2019. A multi-state model with six transitions was employed to analyze the data. Results: Our findings revealed that the hazard of transition from normal BP to elevated BP intensified by age (hazard ratio [HR], 1.06; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04-1.08), body mass index (BMI) (HR, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.04-1.09), and a family history of HTN (HR, 2.65; 95% CI, 1.27-5.38). In addition, age (HR, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.01-1.06), BMI (HR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.01-1.07), and parity (HR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.77-0.97) were significantly associated with the hazard of transition from normal BP to HTN stage 1. BMI was the only risk factor in the transition from normal BP to HTN stage 2 (HR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.01-1.24). Moreover, the family history of HTN (HR, 3.01; 95% CI, 1.02-6.83) and the type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) (HR, 3.98; 95% CI, 1.81-7.73) were strongly related to the transition risk from elevated BP to HTN stage 1. Furthermore, T2DM (HR, 3.21; 95% CI, 1.11-7.26) and menopausal status (HR, 3.33; 95% CI, 1.11-7.95) were significantly associated with an increased risk of progression from HTN stage 1 to HTN stage 2. Conclusions: This study demonstrates that age, BMI, and family history of HTN are key risk factors for the initial progression of HTN in women with normal BP, whereas T2DM and menopausal status play a more critical in the progression to higher stages of HTN.