Key result
Integrating genetic and epidemiological data reduced the number of possible foot-and-mouth disease transmission trees from 41,472 to 1,728, with just 4 trees representing over 95% of the likelihood.
Population
20 farms infected during the 2001 UK foot-and-mouth disease outbreak
Authors
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May aid livestock outbreak tracing; leaves open prospective validation in other pathogens.
Observational (n=20)
Absolute Event Rate: 1728% vs 41472%
A maximum-likelihood approach combining genetic and epidemiological data significantly narrows down probable transmission trees for viral outbreaks like foot-and-mouth disease.
Cottam et al. (2008) conducted an observational in Foot-and-mouth disease (n=20). Integration of genetic and epidemiological data vs. Genetic data alone was evaluated on Number of possible transmission trees. Integrating genetic and epidemiological data reduced the number of possible foot-and-mouth disease transmission trees from 41,472 to 1,728, with just 4 trees representing over 95% of the likelihood.
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