Key result
The proposed Bayesian framework accurately inferred joint epidemiological-evolutionary dynamics and identified multiple clusters within an outbreak, even with incomplete pathogen sequences.
Population
Simulated data and an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in the UK
Design
Other
Authors
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May aid outbreak analysis with incomplete sequences; leaves open prospective validation before routine use.
A novel Bayesian framework enables systematic and genuine joint inference of epidemiological-evolutionary processes from partially observed outbreaks.
Lau et al. (2015) studied Infectious disease transmission (Foot-and-mouth disease). Bayesian framework for joint epidemiological-evolutionary inference vs. Standard approximate methods was evaluated on Accuracy of inferring joint epidemiological-evolutionary dynamics (transmission tree and unobserved sequences). The proposed Bayesian framework accurately inferred joint epidemiological-evolutionary dynamics and identified multiple clusters within an outbreak, even with incomplete pathogen sequences.
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