Key result
The logistic EuroSCORE demonstrated good discrimination for cardiac surgery risk (ROC area 0.79) but significantly overpredicted observed in-hospital mortality (5.7% vs 3.3%, p=0.02).
Why the study?
How well does the logistic EuroSCORE predict operative risk in contemporary cardiac surgery?
Population
9,995 patients undergoing adult cardiac surgery between April 2002 and March 2004 in northwest England
Design
Cohort
Follow-up
in-hospital
Authors
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Clinicians should interpret logistic EuroSCORE predictions with caution; leaves open whether recalibration improves accuracy in contemporary cohorts.
Observational (n=9,995)
Yes
How well does the logistic EuroSCORE predict operative risk in contemporary cardiac surgery?
Effect estimate: ROC area 0.79
Absolute Event Rate: 5.7% vs 3.3%
p-value: p=0.02
The logistic EuroSCORE provides good discrimination for cardiac surgery risk but overestimates in-hospital mortality, suggesting a need for recalibration.
Bhatti et al. (2006) conducted an observational in Cardiac surgery (n=9,995). Logistic EuroSCORE vs. Observed mortality was evaluated on In-hospital mortality (discrimination and calibration) (ROC area 0.79, p=0.02). The logistic EuroSCORE demonstrated good discrimination for cardiac surgery risk (ROC area 0.79) but significantly overpredicted observed in-hospital mortality (5.7% vs 3.3%, p=0.02).
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