From Risk to Resilience: Geopolitical Uncertainty and Heterogeneous R&D Investment Responses in Renewable Energy

• Geopolitical uncertainty and R&D investment follow a U-shaped relationship in China’s renewable energy sector. • Three identification strategies and the Oster (2019) coefficient stability test confirm that the U-shaped pattern is robust to endogeneity and omitted variable concerns. • The U-shaped pattern is most pronounced among firms in the middle of the R&D distribution. • Large firms, non-state-owned enterprises, and firms receiving government subsidies display more pronounced non-linear responses to geopolitical uncertainty • Rising geopolitical pressure widens the innovation gap across firms rather than inducing a uniform response.