Bayesian networks identify determinants of outcomes following cardiac surgery in a UK population

Background Traditional risk stratification tools do not describe the complex principle determinant relationships that exist amongst pre-operative and peri-operative factors and their influence on cardiac surgical outcomes. This paper reports on the use of Bayesian networks to investigate such outcomes. Methods Data were prospectively collected from 4776 adult patients undergoing cardiac surgery at a single UK institute between April 2012 and May 2019. Machine learning techniques were used to construct Bayesian networks for four key short-term outcomes including death, stroke and renal failure. Results Duration of operation was the most important determinant of death irrespective of EuroSCORE. Duration of cardiopulmonary bypass was the most important determinant of re-operation for bleeding. EuroSCORE was predictive of new renal replacement therapy but not mortality. Conclusions Machine-learning algorithms have allowed us to analyse the significance of dynamic processes that occur between pre-operative and peri-operative elements. Length of procedure and duration of cardiopulmonary bypass predicted mortality and morbidity in patients undergoing cardiac surgery in the UK. Bayesian networks can be used to explore potential principle determinant mechanisms underlying outcomes and be used to help develop future risk models.