The Threat of Violence and Forced Migration: Geographical Scope Trumps Intensity of Fighting

Civil war and other forms of generalized violence have been identified as the main determinants of forced migration. Yet, there are still large variations across armed conflicts that have not been accounted for. In this article we examine new measures of armed conflict that indicate the magnitude and scope of fighting. We find that the geographical scope of fighting and the extent to which urban centres are affected determine a significant portion of the variation in the expected number of forced migrants across conflicts. Contrary to our expectations, our results show that the intensity of the armed conflict is not significantly related to the number of forced migrants. These findings suggest that the threat perceived by potential forced migrants is more related to where the fighting is taking place, than to the overall intensity of the fighting.