Predictors of 7-year changes in exercise blood pressure

BACKGROUND: The health status of 1999 apparently healthy men, aged 40-59 years, was ascertained after 16 years. We found that their systolic blood pressure during an ergometer exercise test added prognostic information beyond that from their blood pressure at rest concerning total cardiovascular mortality and mortality from myocardial infarction. OBJECTIVE: To determine predictors of the change in systolic blood pressure at rest during 7 years and of the change in the prognostically important peak exercise systolic blood pressure at 600 kilopondmetres/min during 7 years. METHODS: Predictors of the changes in blood pressures were investigated in 1393 middle-aged men who had been healthy without drug treatment for chronic disease or hypertension for 7 years. Twelve potential independent predictors were investigated. RESULTS: Previous blood pressures, age and body mass index were independent predictors and could explain 18% of the change in systolic blood pressure at rest over 7 years. For systolic blood pressure at 600 kilopondmetres/min also smoking was associated with a rise whereas a high body mass index, physical fitness and forced expiratory volume in 1 s (all P< 0.001) were associated with lower blood pressure, explaining 19% of the variability. CONCLUSIONS: Beyond a relatively strong tracking of blood pressures and the expected effect of age, smoking is associated with a 7-year rise in exercise systolic blood pressure whereas relatively higher body mass, physical fitness and pulmonary function are associated with lower exercise systolic blood pressure after 7 years in middle-aged healthy men.