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A 7-year prospective study of a cohort of 107 neurologically normal elderly hypertensive volunteers (mean age, 65.8 +/- 8.3 years) was undertaken to investigate the predictive validities of additional risk factors for atherothrombotic cerebrovascular disease including stroke, transient ischemic attacks, reversible ischemic neurological deficits, and multi-infarct dementia. This longitudinal study has been in progress now for 7 years with a mean follow-up interval of 50.12 +/- 5.76 months. Among 107 formerly symptom-free, normal hypertensive volunteers, 25 (23%) have developed cerebrovascular disease, 7 (6.5%) sustained a stroke, 10 (9.3%) developed multi-infarct dementia, and 18 (16.8%) have transient ischemic attacks. None have suffered intracranial hemorrhage. Mean gray matter cerebral blood flow (CBF) values measured at the initial visit were sensitive predictors of cerebrovascular disease. Eight of 16 hypertensives (50%) with initial CBF values below 60.0 ml/100 g/min now exhibit signs and symptoms of cerebrovascular disease, while 11 of 43 hypertensives (25.6%) with initial CBF values between 60.1 and 69.9 ml/100 g/min and only 6 of 48 (12.5%) with initial CBF levels above 70.0 developed cerebrovascular disease. Incidence of cerebrovascular disease among cigarette smoking hypertensive volunteers (32.5%) was significantly greater than among nonsmokers (17.2%).
Rogers et al. (Sun,) studied this question.