Persistence or regression of prediabetes and coronary artery calcification among adults without diabetes

OBJECTIVE: The effect of changes in glycemic status on subclinical atherosclerosis is uncertain. We assessed the association of persistence, regression, or progression of prediabetes with coronary artery calcium score (CACS) as a measure of subclinical atherosclerosis. DESIGN: A cross-sectional study, comprising 126 765 adults, and longitudinal sub-study, comprising 40 622 adults (with baseline and at least 1 follow-up computed tomography scan to assess changes in CACS), were undertaken. METHODS: Changes in glycemic status over 1.5 years (interquartile range, 1.0-2.0) before the first CACS assessment were categorized according to 6 groups: persistent normoglycemia (reference), normoglycemia to prediabetes, normoglycemia to diabetes, prediabetes to normoglycemia, persistent prediabetes, and prediabetes to diabetes. Logistic regression was used to calculate the odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs for prevalent coronary artery calcification (CAC). Mixed models with random intercepts and random slopes were used to estimate 5-year CAC progression rates. RESULTS: Mean (SD) age was 41.3 (7.0) years (74.7% male) (n = 126 765). Multivariable-adjusted OR for prevalent CAC was 1.13 (95% CI, 1.08-1.18) for persistent prediabetes, 1.05 (0.98-1.12) for regression to normoglycemia, and 1.46 (95% CI, 1.27-1.67) for progression from prediabetes to diabetes, compared with persistent normoglycemia. Coronary artery calcification progression increased significantly in all prediabetes groups. Multivariable-adjusted ratio of 5-year CAC progression rates was 1.19 (95% CI, 1.16-1.22) (persistent prediabetes), 1.11 (1.07-1.14) (regression to normoglycemia), and 1.63 (95% CI, 1.26-2.10) (progression from prediabetes to diabetes). CONCLUSIONS: Unfavorable changes in glycemic status, including persistence of prediabetes or progression to diabetes from prediabetes, were associated with increased risk of CAC.