State-of-Mind Effects on the Accuracy with Which Utility Functions Predict Marketplace Choice

Derived and reported utility functions for members of a high school junior's family were used to predict actual college applications made the next year. The manipulations were whether or not advance deliberations were prompted before the utility measurement and whether or not subjects imagined an imminent commitment deadline. The predictions were poorer when subjects did not deliberate in advance or imagine a commitment was imminent. The reported utilities gave better predictions than the derived ones.