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June 6, 2026International SecurityOpen Access

Blockade by Fire: China's Potential to Blockade Taiwan Using Missile Attacks on Ports

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Authors

KDKerby DavisEGEugene Gholz

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Overview

Military analysis explores how China could block Taiwan’s trade with missile strikes on ports, suggesting strategies for resilience.

Key Points

  • This analysis investigates the feasibility of a missile strike blockade by China on Taiwan, focusing on its military implications.
  • Developed a Monte Carlo simulation model to analyze blockade operations.
  • Examined standoff missile strikes aimed at reducing cargo throughput to Taiwan.
  • Assessed political and military outcomes of successful blockade scenarios.
  • China can significantly diminish Taiwan's trade volume with a missile blockade.
  • The blockade poses relatively low escalation risks compared to traditional military strategies.
  • Historically, militarily effective blockades often fail to achieve desired political outcomes.

Cite This Study

Davis et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a23bbeb71a5da9775e77428https://doi.org/10.1162/isec.a.407
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