Demographic change, the changing nature of employment, and wage stagnation in Italy

This article examines the renewed centrality of employment, wages, and industrial relations in Italy in 2024–2025. It argues that this shift is not merely cyclical, but reflects deeper structural transformations: population ageing, the contraction of younger cohorts, growing labour shortages, technological change, and persistent wage stagnation. The CGIL referendum and Law No. 76/2025 on worker participation are interpreted as different responses to the same underlying problem: the need to redefine relations between capital, labour, and the state. The article shows how demographic decline may alter workers’ bargaining power, especially where firms face difficulties in recruiting and retaining skilled labour. Drawing on Hirschman’s framework of exit, voice, and loyalty, it analyses how younger workers’ expectations regarding autonomy, participation, and work-life balance are reshaping workplace relations. The article concludes that Italy may be entering a new, still unsettled, phase of industrial relations.