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June 14, 2026BMC GeriatricsOpen Access

Baseline frailty or pre-frailty linked to ~52% higher odds of two-year AF recurrence or persistence.

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Why the study?

While traditional risk factors are well-established, the role of frailty, a marker of biological aging, in the course of AF over time remains underexplored.

Does baseline frailty or pre-frailty increase the odds of atrial fibrillation recurrence or persistence at two years in older adults with non-valvular AF?

Population

773 older adults (≥ 65 years) with AF and a CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score ≥ 2

Comparison

Baseline frailty or pre-frailty vs robust status, or recurrent/persistent AF vs sinus rhythm

Design

Prospective cohort study

Follow-up

Two-year follow-up

Key result

Baseline frailty or pre-frailty was significantly associated with higher odds of atrial fibrillation recurrence or persistence at two years (aOR 1.52).

Authors

BGBahjat GhazzalDLDarleen LessardJTJoseph Tejan

Discussion

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Overview

May identify older AF patients needing closer monitoring; leaves open whether frailty interventions reduce recurrence.

Key Points

  • This research aims to explore the relationship between frailty and atrial fibrillation recurrence or persistence.
  • Utilized data from 854 older adults with atrial fibrillation and CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥ 2 from the SAGE-AF cohort.
  • Participants were evaluated using baseline and two-year follow-up electrocardiograms to determine AF recurrence or persistence.
  • Conducted statistical analysis to determine the association between frailty and AF outcomes.
  • AF recurrence or persistence was found in 379 participants (49%) at two-year follow-up.
  • Higher odds of recurrence or persistence associated with frailty (aOR 1.52, 95%CI 1.03–2.25).
  • Increased incidence of major bleeding events linked to recurrent or persistent AF (aHR 1.87, 95%CI 1.01–3.45).

Study Design

Type

Cohort (n=773)

Multicenter

Yes

Structured PICO

Does baseline frailty or pre-frailty increase the odds of atrial fibrillation recurrence or persistence at two years in older adults with non-valvular AF?

P
Population
773 older adults (mean age 75.5, 48% female) with non-valvular atrial fibrillation and a CHA2DS2-VASc score >2, followed for two years.
E
Exposure
Baseline frailty or pre-frailty (assessed using the Cardiovascular Health Survey [CHS] frailty scale)
C
Comparator
Not frail (no CHS frailty criteria met)
O
Outcome
Recurrence or persistence of atrial fibrillation detected on electrocardiogram (ECG) at two-year follow-up

Main Result

Odds Ratio: 1.52 (95% CI 1.03–2.25)

Baseline frailty or pre-frailty is independently associated with a higher risk of atrial fibrillation recurrence or persistence at two years, which correlates with an increased risk of major bleeding.

Limitations

  • Missing data for baseline AF type reduced the sample available for fully adjusted models to 665 complete cases.
  • Residual risk not captured by measured covariates.
  • Single baseline measurement of frailty, which is a dynamic condition that changes over time
  • Apparent AF-bleeding association may be partially mediated by anticoagulant type (warfarin vs DOAC) rather than reflecting a direct effect of rhythm status

Cite This Study

Ghazzal et al. (2026) conducted a cohort in Atrial Fibrillation (n=773). Frailty or pre-frailty vs. Not frail was evaluated on Recurrence or persistence of atrial fibrillation at two-year follow-up (aOR 1.52, 95% CI 1.03-2.25). Baseline frailty or pre-frailty was significantly associated with higher odds of atrial fibrillation recurrence or persistence at two years (aOR 1.52).

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a2e4608b1cc60ccdea8ae94https://doi.org/10.1186/s12877-026-07794-z
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Also Consider

Synapse has enriched 5 closely related papers on similar clinical questions. Consider them for comparative context:

  1. 1Blood biomarkers and development of Atrial Fibrillation within 1 year, in frail older patients. Outcomes of the Dutch-GERAF study2025
  2. 2Prediction of Recurrence of Atrial Fibrillation After Radiofrequency Ablation by Frailty2025 · 6 citations
  3. 3Incidence of and Risk Factors for Atrial Fibrillation in Older Adults1997 · 1,471 citations
  4. 4Impact of frailty and atrial fibrillation in elderly patients with acute coronary syndromes2021 · 9 citations
  5. 5Polypharmacy and cardiovascular co-morbidity as key contributors to frailty in geriatric patients with AF – insights of the Dutch-GERAF cohort study2026