Randomized trial demonstrates consumer judgments about product longevity using past duration data, suggesting new marketing insights.
Key Points
This research aims to introduce and test the continuity heuristic in consumer judgment, exploring how past duration influences future longevity predictions.
Conducted 24 studies with a total of 9718 participants to assess consumer forecasting strategies.
Tested the impact of past duration on judgments across various consumer domains including brands and subscriptions.
Examined the influence of product type and consumer expertise on the continuity heuristic.
Found that past duration significantly predicts future longevity expectations across various domains (p<0.01).
Noted that the effect weakens for technology products where lifespan norms are clearer (p<0.05).
Observed that expert consumers rely less on past duration and more on domain knowledge for estimating longevity.