EXPRESS: Lifestage Bias: How the Visual Representation of Product Lifespan Shapes Replacement Timing

To guide consumers’ decisions regarding when to replace products such as water filters, printer ink cartridges, and engine oil, companies often provide visualizations of the product’s lifespan. We document a lifestage bias in which representing a product’s lifespan with more (vs. fewer) visually distinct stages increases replacement intentions even when the product’s actual usage is the same. The effect emerges because a greater number of visually distinct stages leads consumers to mentally simulate previous use, thus enhancing the perception that a product has progressed through its lifespan and encouraging product replacement. Ten studies document lifestage bias and provide support (via mediation and moderation) for the underlying usage simulation mechanism. Notably, lifestage bias is eliminated when stages are represented non-visually or when stages are not visually distinct. Furthermore, lifestage bias is attenuated when product deterioration can be observed directly. These findings provide important insights into how consumers make product replacement timing decisions. Adjusting the number of distinct stages in product replacement guides offers firms and policymakers a practical tool to influence replacement timing—accelerating it when timely replacement is necessary for health, safety, or regulatory reasons (thus improving consumer welfare), or delaying it when items can be safely used for longer (thus reducing waste).