EXPRESS: Expanding Markets or Capturing Share? The Competitive Effects of Subscriptions on Spending in Restaurant Delivery

Subscription programs are increasingly central to platform strategy, but their effects on competitors and category demand remain unclear. The authors study restaurant delivery subscriptions using individual-level transaction data on Postmates Unlimited, the first widely available U.S. subscription program in the category, and DoorDash's later DashPass program. Using a matched, staggered difference-in-differences design, they find that signing up for Postmates Unlimited is associated with a 90.4% increase in spending at the focal firm, with no significant average change in competing-firm spending and no offsetting decline in adjacent food categories, consistent with category expansion. Competitive effects depend on customers' prior platform usage. For “singlehomers” (who only used Postmates prior to subscribing), subscribing is associated with increased spending at both the focal firm and competing platforms, even after cancellation. For “multihomers” (who had also previously used competing platforms), the focal-firm effect is larger, and competing-firm spending falls while customers remain subscribed; after cancellation, the focal-firm lift persists, but the decrease in competitor spending does not. DashPass results are broadly similar, but customers with prior Postmates subscription experience show little increase in category spending. Together, these findings suggest subscriptions can both expand markets and capture share, depending on prior platform usage and subscription experience.