Revealing leverage points of anticipatory action for fisheries through a systems thinking lens in developing island states

Climate risks and extreme weather increasingly threaten fishing livelihoods and aquaculture livelihoods in island states, where exposure to climatic shocks is compounded by limited safety nets and weak institutional support. This study investigates how anticipatory actions (AAs) can be fostered to strengthen resilience in fisheries and aquaculture systems within developing island contexts. Focusing on two contrasting fishing systems, coastal and offshore, it aims to: (1) identify environmental triggers, vulnerabilities, AAs, and perceived impacts shaping resilience; (2) co-develop Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) to visualise systemic interrelationships and feedback dynamics; and (3) examine differentiated resilience needs and policy levers across the two fishing operations. The study applied Group Model Building, a participatory systems thinking approach, across two sites in Sri Lanka through four workshops involving 27 fishers, complemented by five expert interviews. The analysis identified key triggers: wind, rainfall, turbidity, sea surface temperature and cyclones, causing safety risks, gear loss, debt dependency, and income instability. Across both fisheries, the CLDs revealed 37 balancing feedback loops, demonstrating how AAs systematically mitigate vulnerabilities while reinforcing positive outcomes such as improved safety at sea, greater income stability, and enhanced operational efficiency. Key leverage points include the adoption of trusted early warnings for weather–catch planning, investment in resilient vessels and rescue systems, mechanisms supporting debt–insurance stability, and adaptive responses to changing bait and turbidity conditions. The CLDs offer policymakers and practitioners actionable insights for prioritizing anticipatory over reactive responses to strengthen fisheries resilience. The causal pathways and leverage points identified are broadly transferable to coastal and offshore fisheries and aquaculture systems globally.